Wemby vs. Chet: Who's the Real Unicorn?

Let's get one thing straight: the NBA has never seen two prospects quite like Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren emerge simultaneously. Both are 7-footers who can dribble, shoot, and protect the rim. The hype around them is legitimate, but their paths, even just one year into Wemby's career and two into Chet's, are already diverging. Think back to the 2023-24 season: Wembanyama, despite playing on a truly dreadful Spurs team that won just 22 games, still managed to average 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, and an absurd 3.6 blocks per game, leading the league in that category. Holmgren, meanwhile, was the cleaner fit on a 57-win Thunder squad, putting up 16.5 points, 7.9 boards, and 2.3 blocks.

Here's the thing: those raw numbers only tell part of the story. Holmgren's efficiency was remarkable for a rookie, shooting 53% from the field and 37% from three on nearly five attempts per game. Wembanyama, on the other hand, was asked to do everything for San Antonio, resulting in a 46.5% field goal percentage and 32.5% from deep. But what Wembanyama showed in flashes, particularly after the All-Star break when he averaged 23.2 points, 12.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 4.0 blocks, was a glimpse into his terrifying potential. The Spurs were +3.7 with him on the court in that span, a significant jump from their season-long -8.9 net rating.

Projecting their 2025-26 seasons means assuming continued development and a bit more stability around them. For Wembanyama, I'm seeing a monster leap. He’ll be in his third season, likely with a more cohesive roster around him. I've got him penciled in for 26.5 PPG, 12.0 RPG, 4.5 BPG, shooting around 49% from the field and 35% from three-point range. His usage will remain sky-high, but his decision-making and strength will improve. For Holmgren, in his third full year, playing alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams on what should be a perennial contender, his numbers will be more refined. I'm looking at 20.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 2.8 BPG, with superior efficiency: 55% FG% and 39% 3P%. He’s already demonstrated a fantastic ability to play off-ball and hit open looks.

Impact metrics, though, are where the true separation begins to show. For 2025-26, I predict Wembanyama's PER will climb to around 26.5, his Win Shares to 10.5, and his VORP to 6.0. These numbers would put him squarely in the MVP conversation if the Spurs can scratch out a respectable record. Holmgren, while still highly impactful, will likely see a PER of 22.0, Win Shares of 8.0, and a VORP of 4.5. His impact is undeniable, but it's often as a high-level complementary piece, rather than the singular engine driving an offense and defense like Wembanyama. Last season, Wemby's 8.9 Win Shares as a rookie on a bad team already outpaced Holmgren's 8.0. That's a huge tell.

Real talk: Wembanyama is the better building block. Full stop. His ceiling is simply higher. You can't teach 7'4" with that kind of skill and defensive instincts. While Holmgren is an excellent two-way player who fits smoothly into a winning system, he lacks the individual creation and sheer defensive terror that Wembanyama brings. Holmgren's 2023-24 season saw him average 0.9 points per possession as the roll man, which is good, but Wembanyama’s ability to score from anywhere on the floor, including 1.05 points per possession on post-ups last season, makes him a more versatile offensive fulcrum. You build *around* Holmgren; you build *with* Wembanyama as the absolute center of everything.

My bold prediction: By the end of the 2025-26 season, Victor Wembanyama will be a First-Team All-NBA selection and the Defensive Player of the Year.