The summer of 2025 feels a long way off, but the rumor mill for the 2025-26 NBA Rookie of the Year award is already churning. We've seen top picks flame out and late lottery guys become cornerstones. Predicting this thing a year-plus out is a fool's errand, but let's be fools together. The world always shifts, but a few names keep popping up.

Here's the thing: draft position means a whole lot less than people think once these guys hit an NBA floor. Remember Anthony Bennett? First overall in 2013. Played 151 career games. Or how about Nikola Jokic, taken 41st in 2014? Two MVPs later, he's redefined the center position. Talent evaluators miss, GMs get greedy, and sometimes, a guy just lands in the perfect situation. The real race isn't about where you were picked; it's about opportunity and production.

The Frontrunners for Freshman Glory

Ace Miller, SG, Atlanta Hawks (Projected No. 1 Pick, 2025 NBA Draft)

Miller's going to Atlanta, and he's walking into a primary scoring role from day one. He’s a microwave scorer, a guy who can get you 25 points on any given night with an effortless jumper and a nasty handle. Think Devin Booker with a little more burst off the dribble. His collegiate numbers at Duke were eye-popping: 23.8 points, 4.1 assists, and 3.2 rebounds on 46% shooting from the field, including 39% from deep. The Hawks, fresh off another middling season, will give him the keys to the offense. Trae Young will still run the show, but Miller becomes the clear second option. Per-36 projection: 20.5 points, 4.0 assists, 3.5 rebounds. He'll have some turnover issues, probably around 3.0 per game, as he adjusts to NBA physicality and speed, but the scoring will be there. Atlanta needs a shot in the arm, and Miller provides it.

Jalen Brooks, PF/C, Charlotte Hornets (Projected No. 2 Pick, 2025 NBA Draft)

Brooks is a fascinating prospect, a legitimate two-way big man with an NBA-ready frame at 6-foot-10, 235 pounds. He spent one year at Kentucky, averaging 16.5 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks. He's got the footwork to defend on the perimeter against switches and the brute strength to hold his own in the post. Offensively, he’s not a back-to-the-basket guy, more of a face-up four who can hit the mid-range jumper and finish strong at the rim. The Hornets are still figuring things out around LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller. Brooks immediately slots in as their starting power forward, offering a defensive anchor they haven't had in years. He won't lead the team in scoring, but his impact will be felt on both ends. Per-36 projection: 15.0 points, 9.5 rebounds, 2.0 blocks. His free throw shooting (72% in college) needs to improve, but his motor is relentless.

Kofi Mensah, PG, San Antonio Spurs (Projected No. 3 Pick, 2025 NBA Draft)

This is the one I'm most bullish on. Mensah is a pure point guard, a pass-first orchestrator with elite court vision and a tight handle. He played two seasons at UCLA, averaging 14.2 points and 8.9 assists in his sophomore campaign. But here’s the kicker: he’s going to San Antonio. We all know what Gregg Popovich does with talented, unselfish point guards. Mensah will be running pick-and-rolls with Victor Wembanyama from day one. His ability to create for others will unlock a new dimension for the Spurs offense. He’s not a high-volume shooter, but he’s efficient when he does shoot (48% from the field, 37% from three). The raw numbers might not jump off the page like Miller’s, but his impact on winning will be undeniable. Per-36 projection: 12.0 points, 9.0 assists, 4.0 rebounds, 1.5 steals. I think Mensah finishes top-three in assists in his rookie class, easy.

Tyrese Johnson, SF, Detroit Pistons (Projected No. 4 Pick, 2025 NBA Draft)

Johnson is the prototypical modern wing, 6-foot-8 with a 7-foot wingspan, capable of guarding multiple positions and hitting perimeter shots. He played one season at Houston, showcasing elite athleticism and defensive instincts, averaging 17.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 1.8 steals. His three-point shooting (36%) is solid, but it's his versatility that makes him so appealing. He'll fit perfectly into what the Pistons are trying to build around Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren. Johnson won't be asked to carry the scoring load, allowing him to focus on defense and opportunistic offense. His athleticism will lead to a lot of highlight plays and easy transition buckets. Per-36 projection: 16.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.0 steals. He’s a dark horse for ROY, mostly because his team will likely still be bad, giving him plenty of usage.

Isaiah Davis, C, Toronto Raptors (Projected No. 7 Pick, 2025 NBA Draft)

Davis is a true rim protector and rebounder, a throwback big man in some respects, but with modern athleticism. He spent two years at Arizona, averaging a double-double in his sophomore season: 14.5 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 3.5 blocks. He's got a huge motor and an excellent feel for timing blocks. The Raptors need interior defense badly, and Davis provides it immediately. He's not going to stretch the floor, but he's a reliable finisher around the rim and a beast on the offensive glass. He’ll play 25-30 minutes right away, anchoring their defense. His offensive game is limited, but his impact on the boards and blocks will be immense. Per-36 projection: 13.0 points, 12.0 rebounds, 3.0 blocks.

My hot take for the 2025-26 Rookie of the Year? Kofi Mensah wins it. He might not put up the flashiest scoring numbers, but his impact on a winning team, especially with Wembanyama, will resonate louder than pure points. The NBA values efficiency and team success, and Mensah will embody both.