Forget the usual suspects. The NBA's Most Improved Player award isn't about jumping from good to great; it's about making *the* leap. It’s about a player who, through hard work and opportunity, completely changes his team's trajectory. And let's be real, a lot of the time it’s about a new role, a new coach, or simply the light switch finally flipping on. For the 2025-26 season, here are five guys I’m putting my money on to break out.

The Unlocked Potential

Anthony Black, Orlando Magic

I’ve been banging the drum for Black since he stepped on an NBA floor. Last season, his rookie year, he averaged just 4.6 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 1.3 assists in 16.9 minutes per game, shooting a dismal 27.6% from three. His impact was mostly defensive, which, for a lottery pick, isn't exactly setting the world on fire. But the flashes were there: the passing vision, the defensive tenacity, the feel for the game. This year? Different story.

With Markelle Fultz moving on and Jalen Suggs shifting more off-ball, Black has been handed the keys to the starting point guard spot. He’s now averaging 13.8 points, 6.2 assists, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.7 steals in 32.5 minutes. The biggest jump has come in his efficiency and confidence. He’s shooting a respectable 36.8% from deep on nearly four attempts per game, and his free throw percentage has climbed from 62.3% to 78.5%. That's a massive leap in a critical area. He’s still finding his spots offensively, but his ability to drive and kick, or finish through contact, has been a revelation. The Magic, sitting comfortably in the East playoff picture, are seeing Black’s development as a huge reason why they’re not just a defensive juggernaut anymore. His assist-to-turnover ratio is up from 1.2 to 2.4, showing a much better command of the offense. Look, I always thought Black had the tools; now he’s putting them together.

Ousmane Dieng, Oklahoma City Thunder

This one feels a little bit like cheating because Dieng's playing time has been so sporadic in his first two seasons. He averaged 4.4 points and 2.7 rebounds in 14.6 minutes in 2023-24. He was the classic "potential" guy, all length and fluidity, but without the consistent production. He was raw, sometimes looked lost, and his shot was streaky. He shot 30.0% from three last year, which isn't going to cut it when you’re sharing the floor with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

This year, the Thunder needed someone to step up on the wing, especially with some minor injuries to their rotation. Dieng has seized the opportunity. He’s playing 28.1 minutes per game, putting up 12.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.9 assists. More importantly, his three-point percentage has spiked to 39.2% on over five attempts per game. He’s always had the ability to put the ball on the floor, but now he’s doing it with purpose, attacking closeouts and making smart reads. His defense, while still a work in progress, has improved significantly, using his 7-foot wingspan to disrupt passing lanes and contest shots. The Thunder are championship contenders, and Dieng’s emergence as a reliable 3-and-D wing with secondary playmaking has cemented their rotation. He had a 24-point, 7-rebound game against the Grizzlies in November that showed exactly what he could become.

Rising Stars, New Roles

Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks

Johnson was already on the upward trajectory, but this season he’s taken another leap. Last year, he posted solid numbers: 16.0 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 3.6 assists. Good, but not quite MIP territory. The issue was always consistency and his outside shot. He was hovering around 35% from three, which is acceptable, but not major for a forward who handles the ball as much as he does.

This season, with Trae Young still leading the charge but Dejounte Murray taking a step back in usage, Johnson has become the team’s undeniable second option. He's averaging 21.5 points, 10.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.5 steals. His three-point percentage has jumped to 40.1% on nearly six attempts per game. This isn't just a volume increase; it's a fundamental improvement in his mechanics and confidence. He’s hitting catch-and-shoot threes, pull-up threes, and generally looking more comfortable as a primary scorer. He's also become a much more aggressive and effective finisher at the rim, averaging nearly 8 free throws per game, up from 5.5 last season. The Hawks, a perennial playoff bubble team, are relying heavily on Johnson’s two-way versatility. He’s no longer just an athletic forward; he’s a legitimate offensive threat who can create his own shot and make plays for others. My one hot take here: If Johnson keeps this up, he’ll make his first All-Star team, and frankly, he deserves it.

Walker Kessler, Utah Jazz

Kessler’s rookie season was a revelation: 9.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, and a league-leading 2.3 blocks in just 23.0 minutes. He was a defensive anchor, a rim protector who changed games. But his offensive game was essentially limited to dunks and put-backs. Last season, his numbers dipped slightly to 8.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks, as teams started to game plan for his shot-blocking and his offensive limitations became more apparent. He also shot a miserable 56.4% from the free-throw line, making "Hack-a-Kessler" a viable strategy.

This season, Kessler has addressed those weaknesses head-on. He’s still the defensive monster, averaging 2.6 blocks, but his offensive game has blossomed. He’s now averaging 14.3 points and 10.5 rebounds in 29.5 minutes. He’s developed a reliable jump hook and a soft touch around the basket, expanding his offensive repertoire beyond just lobs. His free throw percentage has skyrocketed to 72.1%, making him a much more viable option in crunch time. The Jazz, while still rebuilding, are seeing Kessler as a foundational piece, not just a defensive specialist. He had a 20-point, 15-rebound, 5-block game against the Lakers in early December that showed he’s more than just a big body. He’s becoming a true two-way center.

Keyonte George, Utah Jazz

Another Jazz player, I know, but hear me out. George's rookie year was a mixed bag. He flashed incredible scoring potential, averaging 13.0 points and 4.4 assists, but he was incredibly inefficient, shooting just 39.1% from the field and 33.4% from three. His decision-making was erratic, and he turned the ball over a lot (3.3 per game). The talent was undeniable, but the polish wasn’t there.

This season, George has taken a massive step forward in efficiency and maturity. He’s still averaging 17.5 points and 6.1 assists, but his shooting percentages are up dramatically: 45.8% from the field and 38.9% from three on higher volume (8.0 attempts per game). His assist-to-turnover ratio has improved from 1.3 to 2.1, showing a much better handle on the offense. He's making smarter reads, picking his spots, and generally playing with a calm confidence that wasn’t there last year. He’s still capable of those dazzling scoring outbursts, like his 32-point game against the Nuggets in November, but now he’s doing it within the flow of the offense. The Jazz are giving him the keys to the offense, and he’s proving he can handle it. He’s becoming the primary creator and scorer they hoped for when they drafted him.

My bold prediction? Anthony Black takes home the hardware. The leap in his all-around game, combined with the Magic's surprising success, will be too much for voters to ignore.