NBA Expansion: The Not-So-Secret Race for New Markets

The whispers have turned into full-blown shouts. The NBA, after years of feigned indifference, is ready to expand. Two new teams are on the horizon, and let's be real, it's about time. Adam Silver confirmed as much during All-Star Weekend in Indianapolis, stating that expansion is "not a matter of if, but when." The league's new media rights deal, expected to exceed $70 billion over 11 years, makes adding new franchises an even more attractive proposition, potentially adding billions more in expansion fees to the owners' coffers.

The two cities at the front of the line? Seattle and Las Vegas. No surprise there. Seattle, a market that lost its beloved SuperSonics to Oklahoma City in 2008, has been clamoring for a team ever since. The new Climate Pledge Arena, a $1.15 billion marvel completed in 2021, already hosts the NHL's Kraken and is NBA-ready. Las Vegas, meanwhile, has transformed into a legitimate pro sports town, with the Raiders (NFL) and Golden Knights (NHL) proving the market can sustain major league franchises. The Golden Knights, an expansion team in 2017, made the Stanley Cup Final in their inaugural season.

Here's the thing: while everyone focuses on the cities, the real intrigue lies in how these new teams will actually be built. An expansion draft is a given. Think back to 2004 when the Charlotte Bobcats joined the league; each existing team was allowed to protect eight players on their roster. The Bobcats then selected one unprotected player from each of the other 29 teams. That year, Charlotte picked Emeka Okafor first overall in the regular draft and took guys like Gerald Wallace from the Kings and Primož Brezec from the Pacers in the expansion draft. It’s never a star-studded affair, but it gives you a foundation.

My hot take? The NBA needs to sweeten the pot for these new franchises more than they did for the Bobcats. Letting teams protect eight players means the expansion clubs are picking through the league's leftovers. To truly make these teams competitive faster, the existing franchises should only be allowed to protect six players. That would make guys like a valuable rotation player on a deep playoff team, or even a promising young guy buried on the bench, available. Imagine a team like the Celtics having to choose between protecting, say, Al Horford or Sam Hauser; it makes the expansion draft far more impactful.

Beyond the initial roster construction, the draft lottery will also be key. The Bobcats got the fourth pick in 2005 and then the fifth pick in 2006, never quite getting that top-tier talent right away. The new teams will likely receive favorable lottery odds for their first few seasons, similar to how the NHL handled its recent expansions. The Seattle Kraken, for example, had the third-best lottery odds in their debut season and selected Matty Beniers second overall in the 2021 NHL Entry Draft.

Real talk: Adam Silver wants these teams to be viable, not perpetual tankers. The league has seen enough superteams form through free agency and wants more parity. Stronger expansion teams from the jump means more compelling basketball across the board. Look, the league is printing money. Adding Seattle and Vegas, with their ready-made arenas and passionate fan bases (or potential ones), just makes too much sense. Expect an official announcement within the next 18 months, with play potentially starting in the 2026-27 season.

I predict that one of the new expansion teams will make the playoffs within their first four seasons, a feat the Bobcats never achieved.