NBA Expansion: The Not-So-Distant Future
The whispers around NBA expansion have grown into shouts. Adam Silver has been coy, as general managers and owners always are, but it’s pretty clear the league is eyeing two new cities. And let’s be real, it’s about time. The league's revenue topped $10 billion last year, a new record, and adding two more franchises only pours more fuel on that fire. Everyone knows the two frontrunners: Seattle and Las Vegas.
Seattle is a no-brainer. The city lost the SuperSonics to Oklahoma City in 2008, a move still lamented by a generation of basketball fans. They’ve got Climate Pledge Arena, a state-of-the-art facility that opened in 2021 and already hosts the NHL's Kraken. The market is proven, the fan base is rabid, and the league knows it. Think about the potential rivalries: the Blazers are just down the I-5, and Golden State isn't far either. Bringing back the Sonics isn't just about adding a team; it's about righting a historical wrong.
Las Vegas is the other side of that coin. It's a newer market for professional sports, but it's proven it can support them. The Golden Knights arrived in 2017 and won the Stanley Cup in 2023. The Raiders moved there in 2020. They’ve got T-Mobile Arena, which has hosted NBA Summer League for years and drew over 130,000 fans last July. It’s a destination city, and the NBA loves a good destination. Plus, the league has held its annual Summer League there for years, drawing huge crowds. The infrastructure is there, the money is there, and the interest is certainly there.
Here's the thing: adding two teams isn’t just about the cities; it’s about how you stock those rosters. An expansion draft is always tricky. Existing teams don't want to lose key pieces, but the new franchises need a fighting chance. Typically, teams can protect a certain number of players – usually eight or nine. The last time the NBA expanded was 2004, when the Charlotte Bobcats joined, and teams protected eight players. That draft saw players like Gerald Wallace and Jason Kapono change teams.
The real challenge is setting up the new teams for long-term success, not just a couple of seasons of mediocrity. If the league goes with the 2004 model, where teams could only protect eight players, the expansion teams will still be a bit starved for talent. Look at the Bobcats' early years: they won just 18 games in their inaugural season. The NBA needs to make sure these new teams aren't stuck at the bottom of the standings for a decade. My hot take? The league should allow existing teams to protect only seven players this time around. Force some tough decisions. Let the new GMs pick from a deeper pool of proven talent. Otherwise, what’s the point beyond selling more jerseys?
It’s not just about who gets drafted, but also how high the new teams pick in the actual NBA Draft. Do they get a guaranteed top pick for a few years? Do they get extra lottery balls? Giving them a leg up in the lottery for the first three seasons would be a smart play. Imagine Seattle landing a top-three pick in their first year. That’s how you build buzz and a competitive roster quickly. The San Antonio Spurs drafted Tim Duncan first overall in 1997 after a 20-62 season, and that changed everything for them.
The NBA is a global product, and its growth has been immense, from a $3.1 billion valuation in 2014 to over $10 billion today. Expansion is the next logical step. It's not a matter of if, but when.
I predict Adam Silver will officially announce the expansion to Seattle and Las Vegas by the end of the 2024-25 season, with both teams beginning play in the 2026-27 season.