Mark Madsen's Cal Bears: Hope or Another False Dawn?
Look, it’s tough being a Cal basketball fan. Been that way for a long time. They haven’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 2016, a year when Jaylen Brown was still suiting up in Berkeley. They cycled through Cuonzo Martin, Wyking Jones, and then Mark Fox, none of whom could get the program back to any consistent relevance. Fox, in particular, left the program in shambles, going 38-87 in four seasons, including a dismal 3-29 record last year. That 2022-23 team had just two Pac-12 wins, finishing dead last, again.
Enter Mark Madsen. The former Lakers big man and Utah Valley head coach took over in March, inheriting a roster that frankly, didn't have much to brag about. But he immediately went to work in the transfer portal. He landed guys like Fardaws Aimaq, a 6-foot-11 center from Texas Tech who averaged 11.1 points and 7.9 rebounds in 11 games last season. Madsen also snagged Jalen Cone, a guard from Northern Arizona who put up 17.4 points per game in 2022-23. Those are real players, guys who can contribute right away. And Madsen didn't stop there, bringing in forward Grant Newell from the portal and keeping some key pieces like Devin Askew.
The Details
Here's the thing: Madsen isn't just bringing in talent; he's bringing a palpable energy. Cal needed a jolt, and Madsen, with his infectious enthusiasm and NBA pedigree, is providing it. He’s already got the team playing with a noticeable edge, even in early exhibition games. They beat Saint Mary's 75-70 in a closed scrimmage, a Gaels team that won 27 games last year and made the NCAA Tournament. That's not nothing. Then they took down Division II Cal State San Bernardino 83-62, with Aimaq dropping 14 points and Cone adding 13. Baby steps, sure, but steps nonetheless.
The biggest question for this team, as it always is in college basketball, will be chemistry. You’ve got a lot of new faces, a new system, and a new coaching staff trying to gel quickly. Askew, who averaged 15.5 points and 3.4 assists last year, will be crucial. He’s the returning leading scorer and needs to embrace a leadership role, not just a scoring one. If he can facilitate and keep everyone involved, this team could surprise some people. But if everyone’s trying to get theirs, it’ll be the same old story in Berkeley.
My hot take? This Cal team is going to exceed expectations, but not by enough to make the tournament. They’ll finish in the middle of the pack in the Pac-12, maybe 6th or 7th. They’ll string together some impressive wins, perhaps knocking off a ranked Arizona or USC at home. Madsen is too good a coach and too effective a recruiter to allow another 3-win season. They’ll show significant improvement, jumping from three total wins to something like 14 or 15 wins this season. That’s a huge leap in a single year. The pieces are there for a competitive squad, a team that finally plays with some fire.
Breaking It Down
The real test comes in December. They’ve got Butler on December 9th and then San Diego State on December 16th. Those are two legitimate programs that will show us exactly where this new-look Cal team stands. If they can split those two games, or even win one convincingly, then maybe, just maybe, the tide is finally turning in Berkeley.
Bold prediction for the season: Cal finishes 7th in the Pac-12 and wins 16 games overall, a massive improvement that sets the stage for a real tournament push in 2024-25.