Hubert Davis is Figuring it Out, But UNC Still Needs More
Hubert Davis walked into an impossible situation in Chapel Hill. Following a legend like Roy Williams is a thankless job, especially when your first season ends with a national championship game appearance. That 2022 run, culminating in an 81-77 loss to Kansas, set an unfair bar. Last year, the Tar Heels stumbled to a 20-13 record, missing the NCAA Tournament entirely – a first for a preseason No. 1 team since 1974. That’s a tough pill to swallow for a program with six national titles.
The Growing Pains of Year Three
This season, Davis's third, has been a different story. North Carolina finished 27-7 overall and 17-3 in ACC play, securing the regular season conference title. Armando Bacot, the grizzled veteran, averaged a double-double again with 14.5 points and 10.3 rebounds per game. He’s been a rock, but the emergence of RJ Davis as a legitimate ACC Player of the Year candidate, dropping 21.2 points per contest, has been the real engine. Cormac Ryan, the Notre Dame transfer, has hit some timely shots, like his 28 points against Duke on March 9th, sealing another win over their arch-rivals. The team feels more cohesive, less reliant on individual heroics, though RJ Davis often provides those anyway.
Thing is, the metrics still show some cracks. KenPom ranks UNC 10th nationally, which is good, but their adjusted offensive efficiency (116.8) is only 18th. Their defense, at 91.2 adjusted efficiency, is 12th. Those aren't bad numbers, but they aren't elite, not for a team many are picking to make a deep run. Look, they’re winning, and winning convincingly in the ACC this year. Beating Duke twice, taking care of business against most of the league – that’s what you want to see. But the non-conference schedule, outside of a win against Tennessee, was soft. The 87-76 loss to UConn in the Jimmy V Classic showed they still have another gear to find against top-tier competition.
Why the Doubts Persist
Here’s the hot take: Hubert Davis is a good coach, but he’s not a great in-game adjuster yet. There have been too many stretches where opponents go on runs, and UNC struggles to find an answer for five or six minutes. Think back to the ACC Tournament semifinal loss to NC State, an 84-76 defeat. The Wolfpack shot 54% from the field. That’s just not good enough for a team with national title aspirations. Bacot got into foul trouble, and the offense stagnated. It felt like they were waiting for someone to bail them out instead of actively changing the flow.
The roster talent is there. Harrison Ingram, another transfer, has been a revelation with 12.2 points and 8.8 rebounds. Seth Trimble brings energy off the bench. But when the shot isn't falling, or when a team gets physical, the Tar Heels sometimes look a bit lost. They need more consistent offensive flow when the primary options are locked down. It’s not about effort; it's about strategy in those critical moments. Roy Williams had a knack for finding the right button to push, even when his teams weren't perfect. Davis is still learning that part of the job.
They’ve got the regular season title, which is huge for momentum. But the NCAA Tournament is a different beast. Every possession matters, every timeout call is magnified. They've improved dramatically from last year's NIT-bound squad. That's undeniable progress for Davis.
Bold prediction: North Carolina will make the Elite Eight, but they’ll fall short of the Final Four, losing to a team with a more versatile offense and a deeper bench.